"Casa de Kelly"

Our first property comes in the form of a flyer offering a weekly open house. Here are the basic stats:

Lot size: 1.42 acres

House: ~3000 Sq. Ft; 4 bed, 3 bath, and 2 car garage

Price: $1,669,000*

This “gated equestrian estate” is located in Newbury Park, CA, but describes itself as near Malibu. A bit of a stretch, but I could accept that as close enough. Perhaps they are referring to the Conejo Trail network, which is apparently connected to the property. This does give you access all the way to the beach.

Most of the flyer is dedicated to the house; I sense trouble. The pictures provided do show a roomy, stylish house with “high beam ceilings” and promise “beautiful views.” There is a new kitchen and as of today, a bathroom is being remodeled as well. There is a 1200 sq. ft. barn as well. The flyer suggests that this could be converted to a guest house “for your caretaker or inlaws.” Or you could just leave it as is, if you would like your in-laws to only stay one night. There is also space to park a trailer or RV, complete with utility hookups. It all sounds very human-friendly. But what about for the horses?

The flyer assures me that they have “comfortably” kept sixteen horses there. The “BRAND New” barn may or may not have housed any horses yet. There is also a “huge turnout” and an arena. The arena size given is no more specific than “large” but they also recommend converting it to a “legal size jumping arena.” Let me remind you, this is all on less than one and a half acres. I am skeptical about the promises. I hope these sixteen horses will still be on the property so that I can get a better sense of just how much space they are allotted.

I also checked the website provided on the flyer, http://150WKelly.sawitonline.com. Now, this lists the price as $1,599,000, so I will have to check which is the real deal. Leasing is offered at $5,995.

Here is what I consider a critical line of both flyer and site: they promise that “this place is […] ready for you.” So what about all the talk of converting and expanding? It sounds like there is a lot of work to be done for the new owner with horses. This may be a strictly-as-hobby horse facility. We will see if it has the potential for a more serious rider as well.

Our Mission Statement

Let us start with a little equation and an example. You want to provide a service that involves land, such as paid parking¹. The elements of Affordability, Availability, and Convenience are opposed to one another, such that only two can be achieved at the same time. So, sufficient amounts of parking can be either convenient and overpriced or cheap and located in another county. Convenient parking will be cheap and consist of two spaces or fill ten city blocks and cost more than your personal luxury resort. Affordable parking might be close to your destination, but the single space will be reserved for God only or it will be as far from your destination as your own garage and will be highly available to you because it is your own garage. Make sense? Good. We are going to assume that this is a fixed law of economics.

Now, consider an exception to this seemingly fixed rule: the California real estate market. There has been much discussion recently of the difficulties in the housing market around the country. But California is not only the home of the rich and famous—it is the home of the horse ranch. Malibu is full of them. Wine country has as many pastures as vineyards. From sprawling stud farms in Santa Ynez to show grounds in La Canada, horses are the hobby and livelihood of numerous Californians. Yet as home owners are faced with selling at a loss on the current market, ranches and undeveloped land continue to sell at ever more shocking prices.

This is where we come to our exception. The average horseman (barring all Oscar winners and business tycoons) seeking to buy finds that our three elements are mutually exclusive. If land is affordable, it may not actually be available for purchase (it certainly will not exist as described by the seller) and it will be located so far out of the way that subsistence farming and loom weaving will be required to survive. If land is available, precisely as described in the ads/website/flyer, a ranch will cost more than your soul is worth, let alone your portfolio, and it will still be too far away to be useful. And if land is in the heart of horse country, five minutes from a major showground, you will not be able to pay for it and still feed the horses you want to house and the lots will be too small to raise one teacup poodle anyway.

Am I being pessimistic? Have I missed little-known jewels, just waiting to be snatched up for a buck and a quarter? I hope so. I hope that John Gamper, speaking for the California Farm Bureau Federation, was dead wrong when he testified before the Senate Agriculture Committee in 2005, saying that “it will be impossible to preserve our incredibly productive family farms and ranches” if policies on development do not change. I hope that organizations like Land Choices will no longer be necessary in the future because responsible policies and ownership of undeveloped land will be a way of life.

I am going to track down all the available land in California that I can. I will analyze it specifically in terms that are relevant to horse owners, but also buyers in general. How close is the nearest major showground? The nearest grocery store? The nearest mall? What schools are available? How developed is the land? How much development will be possible, given soil conditions, vegetation, etc.? Are your neighbors other horse people, movie stars, or yuppies? What are you really getting when you buy it: a nice house, existing corrals and/or barns, and a good solid fence? Or a blank slate of brush and one dirt road? The Ranch Quest is on.

1 Many thanks to the UCI Parking Department pamphlet for explaining this model. Now if only they would explain why I got that ticket…